You hold. You hold. You are broken.
That’s the daunting reality of playing against Alex de Minaur in 2024. The 25-year-old Australian reached a career-high PIF ATP Ranking of No. 6 on the back of breaking serve more than any other player over the past twelve months. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of his stellar season identifies his superpower as breaking you right around once every three service games.
The leading five players who broke serve the most last season were:
1) Alex de Minaur - 31.6%
2) Carlos Alcaraz - 30.8%
3) Novak Djokovic - 29%
4) Tommy Paul - 28.6%
5) Mariano Navone - 28.5%
De Minaur’s return strategy is straightforward. Against first serves, the Aussie hits over half (55%) of his returns right down the middle third of the court. This clever strategy has a two-fold benefit to start the point. It takes the danger of the singles sidelines out of the equation and also provides no angle for the server to immediately attack him.
Return Direction vs. First Serves
When returning second serves, De Minaur turns up the heat through the Ad court to the right-hander’s backhand wing.
Return Direction vs. Second Serves
De Minaur put 68 per cent of his first-serve returns in the court this season, which is six percentage points higher than the Tour average of 62 per cent. De Minaur put an impressive 91 per cent of second-serve returns in the court, nine percentage points higher than the Tour average of 82 per cent. De Minaur’s consistency and direction weigh heavily on the opponent’s mind when trying to hold serve.
Overall, De Minaur won 33 per cent of his first-serve return points and a dominant 55.9 per cent of second-serve return points this season. Only Alcaraz won more second-serve return points, at 56.1 per cent.
De Minaur also led the Tour in 2024 in break points converted rate at 45.1 per cent. The leading five players over the past twelve months in this category were:
1) Alex de Minaur - 45.1%
2) Daniil Medvedev - 44%
3) Jack Draper - 43.8%
4) Mariano Navone - 43.1%
5) Carlos Alcaraz - 42.7%
It’s interesting to note that De Minaur’s return speed is almost identical to the rest of the players on Tour.
Where De Minaur does win the speed battle is with his feet. He is lightning fast and immediately shrinks the court with his ability to run down so many balls and get his teeth into return games. Overall, he won 41 per cent of his return points in 2024, which powered him to 47 wins on Tour, including titles in ’s-Hertogenbosch (grass) and Acapulco (hard).
De Minaur will start the 2025 season on home soil. He has reached the Round of 16 at the Australian Open in the past three years. A deeper run is on the cards for the improving Aussie.
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